Cheyenne, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

190
FXUS65 KCYS 132047
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
247 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm threat continues through the weekend, with a
  daily risk of strong to severe activity expected.

- Temperatures notably above average this weekend with highs 5
  to 10 degrees warmer than normal.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms continue into next week with a
  quick cool-off to bring us back to near normal before heating
  back to well above normal late next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Storms are already firing across the region in a favorable
environment for strong to severe activity. Current mesoanalysis
shows surface CAPE east of the I-25 corridor in the 2000-4000
J/kg range, and low-level lapse rates between 7-10 C/km. High
resolution guidance indicates we should see the ongoing storms
that are currently moving into the I-25 area will continue to
expand into a strong cluster/line of activity moving into the
evening hours as it continues towards Nebraska. With Derecho
composites 1-2 and MCS maintenance up to 60, the likelihood we
see activity becoming linear and a widespread wind risk are
becoming higher and higher. But some low to mid level wind shear
could be enough to support updrafts of large hail, as well as
the support for a very isolated tornado (with a linear based
embedded rotation also not out of the question). Activity
presses through Nebraska through the evening hours, with storms
expected to exit our CWA by the late evening into the early
nighttime hours. Clearing is expected overnight, but with the
trough remaining over the region alongside a moist airmass,
another round of strong to severe activity is anticipated on
Saturday. This time though with notable warming and some
declining moisture, dewpoints may drop a bit further across
Laramie County and along I-25, leading to the primary severe
risk further to the north and east where moisture should still
remain a bit higher with dewpoints into the 50`s to 60`s. Storms
are expected to fire during the afternoon around or just east of
I-25, with large hail and winds the primary risks once again.
This time the environment should be a bit more supportive of
hail with some isolated supercells to clusters of storms likely,
though storm motions are still anticipated to quickly propagate
the storms east-northeastward and out of the CWA through the
evening hours.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Moving into the long term, the thunderstorm threat doesn`t end
as we see daily risk of activity to end the weekend and start
the work week. The threat on Sunday continues to shift a bit
more north and eastwards, so thankfully the bulk of the
strongest activity should remain just outside of our CWA, but a
few severe storms cannot be ruled out. The notably warm
temperatures should also help to reduce our RH values and make
dewpoints descend a bit more west of I-25, keeping anywhere in
this area in general thunderstorms at best, but further east a
few stronger cells can`t be ruled out. On Monday the ridge that
is primarily controlling the region should begin to break down,
but not enough to allow for a stronger severe risk to
overspread. A few marginally strong to severe storms are
possible, but the highest risk for severe activity still remains
just to our northeast. That all changes on Tuesday however, as
the ridge will fully breakdown and a stout shortwave trough will
move across the region, possibly even taking a negatively tilted
orientation at the upper levels. Temperatures will descend
notably as highs dive back down into the 70`s, allowing
dewpoints to more closely align to our temperatures, and with
low level shear much stronger alongside expected instability, we
may see an even better day for severe weather across the area.
The one caveat though will be if we can get enough clearing to
initiate stronger storms, as the drop in temperatures should
allow more cloud cover which could limit stronger heating.
Still, enough breaks and gaps are possible, and so expect a
potentially stout day for severe weather.

After this though, the ridge builds back in with a vengeance,
and we`ll see temperatures skyrocket through the end of next
week and moisture all but depart our CWA. A few showers or
storms could be possible on Wednesday for our northeastern
counties, but expect a drying trend with temperatures back into
the 80`s and some 90`s possible on Thursday. Into the extended
term just beyond this forecast, we`re looking at significant
warmth, with highs into the low to mid 90`s east of I-25. This
could be our last temperate weekend before summer rears its head
finally for our region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Mostly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. The
exception will be to any locations that see thunderstorms today,
where MVFR or lower conditions will be possible. Thunderstorms
expected to begin here in the next couple of hours, and will
spread eastwards through the afternoon and evening. Used PROB30
groups for KLAR/KCYS, with all four Nebraska terminals receiving
TSRA due to likely line of thunderstorms moving into these sites
with VRB winds from stronger gusts. Cloud bases will be mid
level as activity rolls through, lifting and dispersing
overnight into tomorrow morning. Winds generally 10-20 knots
with stronger gusts near any storms.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG